Wizards vs. Pistons

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (50%) · Pistons at 82¢ · $781 held · ends Nov 10

Wizards19¢Pistons81¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 50%

Total Value

$780.94

Combined PnL

$4.21

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 81.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards19%

Pistons82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$397.23

Total Shares488

Combined PnL+$5.68

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$383.71

Total Shares2,081

Combined PnL-$1.47

Pistons — 50%Wizards — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Pistonsavg 79.8¢	$199.57	$194.3	+$4.23	48% 71751-77431 (149182)
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 81¢	$152.04	$152.98	+$0.94	58% 53377-37936 (91313)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Wizardsavg 19.3¢	$143.63	$145.27	+$1.63	50% 49072-48621 (97693)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wizardsavg 19¢	$129.82	$126.74	-$3.08	54% 20181-17012 (37193)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 20¢	$59.31	$60.19	+$0.88	45% 14516-17894 (32410)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 20¢	$43.32	$42.18	-$1.14	45% 2560-3085 (5645)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 80¢	$51	$41.06	+$0.26	53% 28103-25389 (53492)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 19¢	$47.89	$9.34	+$0.24	47% 2600-2967 (5567)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Pistonsavg 80.1¢	$4.79	$4.78	+$0.07	48% 8386-8920 (17306)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Pistonsavg 78¢	$3.94	$4.12	+$0.18	51% 5958-5738 (11696)

38791873984189

Pistons

Invested

$199.57

Value

$194.3

PnL

+$4.23

Record

48%

71751-77431 (149182)

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$152.04

Value

$152.98

PnL

+$0.94

Record

58%

53377-37936 (91313)

SnakeBallCTR

Wizards

Invested

$143.63

Value

$145.27

PnL

+$1.63

Record

50%

49072-48621 (97693)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$129.82

Value

$126.74

PnL

-$3.08

Record

54%

20181-17012 (37193)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$59.31

Value

$60.19

PnL

+$0.88

Record

45%

14516-17894 (32410)

VenusianCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$43.32

Value

$42.18

PnL

-$1.14

Record

45%

2560-3085 (5645)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$51

Value

$41.06

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

28103-25389 (53492)

LimousinCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$47.89

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

2600-2967 (5567)

Oddstorm<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

8386-8920 (17306)

6512395314597884<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

5958-5738 (11696)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.