Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (93%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 7.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$169.05

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 7.5¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,552

Combined PnL+$820.82

Over3 traders

Total Value$407.24

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL-$989.87

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 53.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$168.32	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.4¢	$965.33	$1.4K	+$480.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$1.0K	$383.77	-$649.3
TO torta.tech	Underavg 45¢	$737.1	$1.3K	+$573.3	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$342.36	-$831.44	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$255.33	$336.04	+$80.71	49% 559-583 (1142)
AN Anon455	Underavg 44¢	$168.73	$295.5	+$126.78	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$54.55	$67.55	+$13	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 47¢	$38.5	$65.53	+$27.03	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
PA pauleta23CTR	Overavg 56¢	$111.65	$39.88	-$71.78	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Overavg 55.8¢	$111.65	$25	-$86.65	51% 675-657 (1332)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,998.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$168.32

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Under$965.3353.4¢+$480.98

Over$1,033.0753.8¢-$649.3

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$737.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$573.3

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,173.81

Value

$342.36

PnL

-$831.44

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$255.33

Value

$336.04

PnL

+$80.71

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$168.73

Value

$295.5

PnL

+$126.78

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$54.55

Value

$67.55

PnL

+$13

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$38.5

Value

$65.53

PnL

+$27.03

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

pauleta23CTR

Over

Invested

$111.65

Value

$39.88

PnL

-$71.78

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

seeeeeebCTR

Over

Invested

$111.65

Value

$25

PnL

-$86.65

Record

51%

675-657 (1332)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.