Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 252.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 89¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$4.0K
-$618.96
46.2¢ → 88.5¢
+92% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 89%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 46¢ | $1.0K | $1.8K | -$87.88 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 46.5¢ | $877.73 | $1.3K | +$462.33 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 53.8¢ | $1.2K | $438.8 | -$740.5 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
CH chiefphiCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $529.99 | $289.99 | -$240 | 53% 90-80 (170) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $50.91 | $81.96 | +$31.05 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $57.21 | $78.35 | +$21.15 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.9¢ | $71.42 | $20.02 | -$51.4 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 55.9¢ | $30.71 | $17 | -$13.71 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,010.62
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$87.88
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
Invested
$877.73
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$462.33
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$1,179.3
Value
$438.8
PnL
-$740.5
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$529.99
Value
$289.99
PnL
-$240
Record
53%
90-80 (170)
Invested
$50.91
Value
$81.96
PnL
+$31.05
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$57.21
Value
$78.35
PnL
+$21.15
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$71.42
Value
$20.02
PnL
-$51.4
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$30.71
Value
$17
PnL
-$13.71
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.