Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$2.86

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,933

Combined PnL+$0

Under4 traders

Total Value$649.15

Total Shares1,292

Combined PnL+$2.86

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Overavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	54% 1251-1060 (2311)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$472.01	$472.9	+$0.89	54% 16863-14141 (31004)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$120	$121.25	+$1.25	58% 40750-29469 (70219)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$51.88	$52.5	+$0.62	58% 28120-20725 (48845)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.5	+$0.1	47% 2041-2343 (4384)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Over

Invested

$1,966.42

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1251-1060 (2311)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$472.01

Value

$472.9

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

16863-14141 (31004)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

40750-29469 (70219)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.88

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$0.62

Record

58%

28120-20725 (48845)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2041-2343 (4384)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.