Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$21.67

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,491

Combined PnL-$49.82

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,505

Combined PnL+$28.15

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 57¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$49.82	62% 4022-2463 (6485)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$48.7	54% 16882-14151 (31033)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Underavg 42¢	$289.47	$310.14	+$20.68	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$46.22	$50.73	+$4.51	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$79.51	$34.63	-$44.89	56% 2640-2094 (4734)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.25	+$0.15	47% 2091-2369 (4460)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.65	$0.65	-$1	53% 3186-2848 (6034)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$1,419.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$49.82

Record

62%

4022-2463 (6485)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,049.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$48.7

Record

54%

16882-14151 (31033)

BullishBarbCTR

Under

Invested

$289.47

Value

$310.14

PnL

+$20.68

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.22

Value

$50.73

PnL

+$4.51

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.51

Value

$34.63

PnL

-$44.89

Record

56%

2640-2094 (4734)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

2091-2369 (4460)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.