Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Wizards (87%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 14¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Cavaliers14¢Wizards86¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 13.5¢

-73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers14%

Wizards87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares11,916

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares7,323

Combined PnL+$295.44

Cavaliers — 50%Wizards — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpWizards 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrWizards 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 49.7¢	$4.4K	$3.2K	$-1.5K	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
aibaby	Wizardsavg 62.4¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.99	53% 100-90 (190)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Cavaliersavg 50.4¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$518	49% 559-583 (1142)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 34.9¢	$933.04	$952.99	+$19.95	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 34.9¢	$549.91	$653.2	+$103.29
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 74.8¢	$383.12	$299.79	-$83.33
GA gagarin59	Wizardsavg 48¢	$558.11	$732.52	+$174.41	52% 657-608 (1265)
TO torta.tech	Wizardsavg 45¢	$345.44	$483.61	+$138.18	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 35.2¢	$231.16	$248.11	+$16.95	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 41.5¢	$79.67	$146.88	+$67.21
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 35.2¢	$151.49	$101.23	-$50.26
AN Anon455	Wizardsavg 80¢	$231.2	$182.07	-$49.13	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
HRTradingARB<$100	Wizardsavg 44.3¢	$102.75	$127.29	+$24.53	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 44.3¢	$60.2	$79.56	+$19.36
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$42.55	$47.72	+$5.17
0X 0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 41¢	$66.38	$59.9	-$6.48	48% 96-105 (201)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 57¢	$9.59	$9.99	+$0.41	58% 28159-20759 (48918)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,350.77

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

aibaby

Wizards

Invested

$3,183.35

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.99

Record

53%

100-90 (190)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,501.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$518

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

takeormakeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$933.04

Value

$952.99

PnL

+$19.95

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$549.9134.9¢+$103.29

Wizards$383.1274.8¢-$83.33

gagarin59

Wizards

Invested

$558.11

Value

$732.52

PnL

+$174.41

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

torta.tech

Wizards

Invested

$345.44

Value

$483.61

PnL

+$138.18

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$231.16

Value

$248.11

PnL

+$16.95

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

Both legs:

Wizards$79.6741.5¢+$67.21

Cavaliers$151.4935.2¢-$50.26

Anon455

Wizards

Invested

$231.2

Value

$182.07

PnL

-$49.13

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

HRTradingARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$102.75

Value

$127.29

PnL

+$24.53

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Both legs:

Wizards$60.244.3¢+$19.36

Cavaliers$42.5537¢+$5.17

0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$66.38

Value

$59.9

PnL

-$6.48

Record

48%

96-105 (201)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$9.59

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.41

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpWizards 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrWizards 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.