Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (50%) · Wizards at 74¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Cavaliers27¢Wizards73¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$36.95

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 73.5¢

+47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers27%

Wizards74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$347.9

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$41.67

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$24.84

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$4.72

Wizards — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$468.49	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 56.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$156.94
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$625.43
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 39.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$72.22	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 39.7¢	$980.47	$1.1K	+$81.43
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 58¢	$560.4	$551.19	-$9.21
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 43¢	$638.92	$762.31	+$123.39	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 43¢	$430	$540	+$110
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 43.2¢	$208.92	$222.31	+$13.39
BU BullishBarb	Wizardsavg 50.2¢	$242.42	$275.31	+$32.89	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 54.9¢	$190.7	$167.25	-$23.45	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 54.9¢	$112.86	$87.33	-$25.53
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 56¢	$77.84	$79.93	+$2.08
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Wizardsavg 49¢	$66.75	$72.59	+$8.78	49% 559-583 (1142)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$21.64	$17.74	-$3.9	50% 3721-3695 (7416)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 49.2¢	$7.92	$7.1	-$0.82	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,225.48

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$468.49

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Wizards$1,978.8456.5¢+$156.94

Cavaliers$2,246.6554¢-$625.43

takeormakeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,540.87

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$72.22

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$980.4739.7¢+$81.43

Wizards$560.458¢-$9.21

Anon455ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$638.92

Value

$762.31

PnL

+$123.39

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Wizards$43043¢+$110

Cavaliers$208.9243.2¢+$13.39

BullishBarb

Wizards

Invested

$242.42

Value

$275.31

PnL

+$32.89

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$190.7

Value

$167.25

PnL

-$23.45

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$112.8654.9¢-$25.53

Wizards$77.8456¢+$2.08

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Wizards

Invested

$66.75

Value

$72.59

PnL

+$8.78

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$21.64

Value

$17.74

PnL

-$3.9

Record

50%

3721-3695 (7416)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$7.92

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.82

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.