Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (100%) · Wizards at 58¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
3
Wizards 100%
3 arb excluded
$8.4K
$2.1
47.5¢ → 58¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 56.2¢ | $5.8K | $5.7K | -$96.55 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 56.2¢ | $3.3K | $2.9K | -$363.13 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 45.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$266.58 | |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 60.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$51.38 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 43.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$569.94 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 60.8¢ | $1.2K | $657.42 | -$518.56 | |
BU BullishBarbARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 34¢ | $162.14 | $187.12 | +$24.98 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 34¢ | $95.54 | $95.54 | +$0 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 48¢ | $66.6 | $91.58 | +$24.98 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Wizardsavg 48¢ | $129.49 | $138.37 | +$8.88 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Wizardsavg 46.4¢ | $74.64 | $67.74 | -$6.9 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Wizardsavg 49.6¢ | $16.38 | $16.5 | +$0.12 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$5,781.26
Value
$5.7K
PnL
-$96.55
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,253.49
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$51.38
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.14
Value
$187.12
PnL
+$24.98
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.49
Value
$138.37
PnL
+$8.88
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$74.64
Value
$67.74
PnL
-$6.9
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.38
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.