Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (63%) · Wizards at 96¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
8
Wizards 63%
$21.2K
$3.9K
69.2¢ → 95.5¢
+38% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aibaby | Wizardsavg 70.8¢ | $14.2K | $17.4K | +$3.2K | 53% 100-90 (190) |
SA SadSquid54333 | Wizardsavg 62¢ | $1.4K | $2.0K | +$485.3 | 60% 161-107 (268) |
 Nooserac | Wizardsavg 61¢ | $1.2K | $1.7K | +$436.41 | 52% 5722-5285 (11007) |
AN Anon455CTR | Cavaliersavg 29.9¢ | $411.79 | $179.01 | -$232.78 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Wizardsavg 60¢ | $25.2 | $24.78 | -$0.21 | 50% 6821-6834 (13655) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Wizardsavg 59¢ | $5 | $4.18 | +$1.23 | 47% 2102-2381 (4483) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 39¢ | $9.75 | $3.25 | -$6.5 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 41¢ | $0.69 | $0.64 | -$0.05 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
aibabyInvested
$14,152.99
Value
$17.4K
PnL
+$3.2K
Record
53%
100-90 (190)
Invested
$1,399.47
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$485.3
Record
60%
161-107 (268)
NooseracInvested
$1,157.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$436.41
Record
52%
5722-5285 (11007)
Invested
$411.79
Value
$179.01
PnL
-$232.78
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$24.78
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
6821-6834 (13655)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$1.23
Record
47%
2102-2381 (4483)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.75
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$6.5
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$0.05
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.