Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (50%) · Wizards at 53¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28

Cavaliers47¢Wizards53¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 50%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$5.99

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 53¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers47%

Wizards53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares11,549

Combined PnL-$323.44

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares11,035

Combined PnL+$329.43

Wizards — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ArielFilipino	Wizardsavg 54¢	$5.9K	$5.6K	-$325.04	61% 96-62 (158)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$149.74	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$148.39	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$460	$490	+$30	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
RN1	Wizardsavg 52¢	$259.98	$262.48	+$2.5	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$39.79	$40.66	+$1.3	38% 848-1408 (2256)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Wizardsavg 54¢	$15.66	$14.79	-$0.87	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
RL RLWG<$100	Wizardsavg 53¢	$7.95	$8.03	+$0.08	50% 7654-7675 (15329)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wizardsavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.55	-$0.1	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

ArielFilipino

Wizards

Invested

$5,935.04

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$325.04

Record

61%

96-62 (158)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,296

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$149.74

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,275.34

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$148.39

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$460

Value

$490

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$259.98

Value

$262.48

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$39.79

Value

$40.66

PnL

+$1.3

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Wizards

Invested

$15.66

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$0.87

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

RLWG<$100

Wizards

Invested

$7.95

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

7654-7675 (15329)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.