Wizards vs. Cavaliers
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (75%) · Cavaliers at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
4
Cavaliers 75%
$2.0K
$11.41
76.3¢ → 78.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Cavaliersavg 75.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$14.74 | 90% 236-25 (261) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Cavaliersavg 78¢ | $593.46 | $582.05 | -$11.41 | 52% 2017-1845 (3862) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Wizardsavg 21¢ | $342.02 | $350.17 | +$8.14 | 49% 85-88 (173) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Cavaliersavg 77¢ | $8.47 | $8.42 | -$0.05 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
Invested
$1,063.07
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$14.74
Record
90%
236-25 (261)
Invested
$593.46
Value
$582.05
PnL
-$11.41
Record
52%
2017-1845 (3862)
Invested
$342.02
Value
$350.17
PnL
+$8.14
Record
49%
85-88 (173)
Invested
$8.47
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$0.05
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.