Wizards vs. Hawks

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (64%) · Hawks at 72¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7

Wizards28¢Hawks72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$36.46

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 71.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wizards28%

Hawks72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,468

Combined PnL+$90.68

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,316

Combined PnL-$54.22

Hawks — 64%Wizards — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHawks 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 69.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$62.12	54% 18309-15408 (33717)
GA GaditimaCTR	Wizardsavg 34.4¢	$731.99	$659.25	-$38.49	48% 7433-8152 (15585)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wizardsavg 30¢	$601.62	$571.65	-$29.97	58% 47033-33917 (80950)
PU purplegatto	Hawksavg 68.3¢	$477.34	$499.43	+$22.09	49% 6334-6486 (12820)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hawksavg 70.9¢	$1.3K	$421.59	-$20.25	48% 61871-66733 (128604)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 70.9¢	$293.29	$295.95	-$138.12
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 30.1¢	$132.48	$125.64	+$117.88
OD Oddstorm	Hawksavg 70¢	$144.34	$142.2	-$3.18	48% 7422-7958 (15380)
BO BoomLaLa	Hawksavg 66.5¢	$133	$71.5	+$9.5	53% 12541-11252 (23793)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 37¢	$44.26	$41.72	-$1.83	51% 4823-4685 (9508)
PA Pan9XCTR	Wizardsavg 29.2¢	$101.39	$31.28	+$16.07	54% 10087-8472 (18559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hawksavg 67.3¢	$30.12	$30.61	+$0.49	58% 21386-15516 (36902)
PT PT-S7<$100	Hawksavg 67¢	$11.99	$12.34	+$0.27	49% 3253-3430 (6683)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Hawksavg 74¢	$9.96	$9.29	-$0.61	50% 21344-21627 (42971)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$2,359.8

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$62.12

Record

54%

18309-15408 (33717)

GaditimaCTR

Wizards

Invested

$731.99

Value

$659.25

PnL

-$38.49

Record

48%

7433-8152 (15585)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$601.62

Value

$571.65

PnL

-$29.97

Record

58%

47033-33917 (80950)

purplegatto

Hawks

Invested

$477.34

Value

$499.43

PnL

+$22.09

Record

49%

6334-6486 (12820)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,251.12

Value

$421.59

PnL

-$20.25

Record

48%

61871-66733 (128604)

Both legs:

Hawks$293.2970.9¢-$138.12

Wizards$132.4830.1¢+$117.88

Oddstorm

Hawks

Invested

$144.34

Value

$142.2

PnL

-$3.18

Record

48%

7422-7958 (15380)

BoomLaLa

Hawks

Invested

$133

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$9.5

Record

53%

12541-11252 (23793)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$44.26

Value

$41.72

PnL

-$1.83

Record

51%

4823-4685 (9508)

Pan9XCTR

Wizards

Invested

$101.39

Value

$31.28

PnL

+$16.07

Record

54%

10087-8472 (18559)

ghorrock<$100

Hawks

Invested

$30.12

Value

$30.61

PnL

+$0.49

Record

58%

21386-15516 (36902)

PT-S7<$100

Hawks

Invested

$11.99

Value

$12.34

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

3253-3430 (6683)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Hawks

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.61

Record

50%

21344-21627 (42971)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHawks 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.