Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 53¢ · $13K held

Over48¢Under52¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$316.29

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 52.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares16,081

Combined PnL+$437.73

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,788

Combined PnL-$121.44

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49.3¢	$6.6K	$7.0K	+$374.45	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 52¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$120	52% 1580-1467 (3047)
nigiri99	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$45	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
SE sentrio	Underavg 50¢	$467.2	$485.73	+$18.54	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 49¢	$245	$242.5	-$2.5	53% 5752-5086 (10838)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50.1¢	$139.7	$132.44	+$1.11	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52¢	$24.85	$23.34	-$0.45	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$4.74	$4.94	+$0.2	53% 7644-6915 (14559)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.35	$4.31	-$0.05	54% 3479-3014 (6493)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,608.31

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$374.45

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$4,160

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$120

Record

52%

1580-1467 (3047)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$467.2

Value

$485.73

PnL

+$18.54

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$242.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

5752-5086 (10838)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$139.7

Value

$132.44

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$24.85

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$0.45

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

7644-6915 (14559)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.