Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 15 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 44¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$35.3K

Combined PnL

-$745.25

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 43.5¢

-9% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

15 of 18 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares32,010

Combined PnL+$960.49

Under15 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares37,737

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 92% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52¢	$15.6K	$16.5K	+$899.99	53% 535-466 (1001)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$8.6K	$7.7K	-$581.98	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 48¢	$5.9K	$5.3K	-$618.66	45% 214-259 (473)
one8tyfiveCTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$166.32	— 10-5 (15)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Overavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$60	0% 1-386 (387)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.1K	$978.43	-$113.55	34% 735-1404 (2139)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 48¢	$944.1	$845.76	-$98.34	36% 761-1361 (2122)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 49¢	$362.11	$317.77	-$44.34	21% 156-572 (728)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$320.99	$293.42	-$27.58	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$264.67	$237.1	-$27.57	35% 749-1385 (2134)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$182.6	$162.48	-$20.13	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$70.62	$63.26	-$7.36	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$6.8	$6.09	-$0.71	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 53¢	$9.79	$5.44	+$0.49	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5.59	$5.01	-$0.58	35% 735-1379 (2114)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.3	-$0.4	53% 388-339 (727)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$43.73	$3.96	+$1.97	53% 1030-921 (1951)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.15	-$0.2	40% 584-893 (1477)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$15,599.9

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$899.99

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$8,615.02

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$581.98

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$5,912.39

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$618.66

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

one8tyfiveCTR

Under

Invested

$1,954.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$166.32

Record

—

10-5 (15)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Over

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$60

Record

1-386 (387)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,091.97

Value

$978.43

PnL

-$113.55

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$944.1

Value

$845.76

PnL

-$98.34

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$362.11

Value

$317.77

PnL

-$44.34

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$320.99

Value

$293.42

PnL

-$27.58

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$264.67

Value

$237.1

PnL

-$27.57

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$182.6

Value

$162.48

PnL

-$20.13

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.62

Value

$63.26

PnL

-$7.36

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$0.71

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$9.79

Value

$5.44

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.58

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.73

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$1.97

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

15 of 18 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 92% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.