Spread: Rockets (-5.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (50%) · Rockets at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
8
Rockets 50%
$1.3K
$24.04
79.6¢ → 79.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Rocketsavg 79.5¢ | $687.54 | $709.5 | +$21.96 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Jazzavg 20¢ | $165.1 | $160.97 | -$4.13 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
LI LimousinCTR | Jazzavg 20.8¢ | $139.94 | $137.81 | -$2.13 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
PA Pan9X | Rocketsavg 80.4¢ | $113.36 | $115.61 | +$2.25 | 49% 1307-1356 (2663) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Rocketsavg 80¢ | $98.81 | $101.9 | +$3.09 | 61% 1004-631 (1635) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Rocketsavg 79¢ | $95.59 | $99.22 | +$3.63 | 31% 134-299 (433) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 20¢ | $19.8 | $19.31 | -$0.5 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 21¢ | $2.66 | $2.53 | -$0.13 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
Invested
$687.54
Value
$709.5
PnL
+$21.96
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$165.1
Value
$160.97
PnL
-$4.13
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$139.94
Value
$137.81
PnL
-$2.13
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$113.36
Value
$115.61
PnL
+$2.25
Record
49%
1307-1356 (2663)
Invested
$98.81
Value
$101.9
PnL
+$3.09
Record
61%
1004-631 (1635)
Invested
$95.59
Value
$99.22
PnL
+$3.63
Record
31%
134-299 (433)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.31
PnL
-$0.5
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$2.66
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.13
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.