Jazz vs. Mavericks

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (44%) · Mavericks at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Jazz28¢Mavericks72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$15.82

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz28%

Mavericks72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,014

Combined PnL+$20.38

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$534.66

Total Shares1,855

Combined PnL-$4.55

Mavericks — 44%Jazz — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Mavericksavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$19.52	46% 5242-6085 (11327)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 71.9¢	$958.79	$948.35	+$0.48	54% 18272-15382 (33654)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 71.9¢	$701	$702.14	+$4.88
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 29.3¢	$257.79	$246.21	-$4.4
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 28.4¢	$300.38	$301.1	+$0.72	52% 4933-4475 (9408)
OD OddstormCTR	Jazzavg 29¢	$148.77	$143.64	-$2.57	48% 7414-7954 (15368)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Jazzavg 29¢	$48.97	$48.22	-$0.75	49% 6331-6485 (12816)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 31.1¢	$41.92	$37.8	-$2.03	48% 7425-8141 (15566)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 71¢	$29.82	$30.24	+$0.42	54% 10007-8409 (18416)
SE sentrio<$100	Mavericksavg 71¢	$10.17	$10.31	+$0.14	50% 26039-25715 (51754)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Jazzavg 28¢	$3.84	$3.9	+$0.07	53% 2609-2302 (4911)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Mavericksavg 67.1¢	$3.56	$3.82	+$0.29	51% 4791-4645 (9436)

hi774c

Mavericks

Invested

$1,386

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$19.52

Record

46%

5242-6085 (11327)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$958.79

Value

$948.35

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

18272-15382 (33654)

Both legs:

Mavericks$70171.9¢+$4.88

Jazz$257.7929.3¢-$4.4

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$300.38

Value

$301.1

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

4933-4475 (9408)

OddstormCTR

Jazz

Invested

$148.77

Value

$143.64

PnL

-$2.57

Record

48%

7414-7954 (15368)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$48.97

Value

$48.22

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

6331-6485 (12816)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$41.92

Value

$37.8

PnL

-$2.03

Record

48%

7425-8141 (15566)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$29.82

Value

$30.24

PnL

+$0.42

Record

54%

10007-8409 (18416)

sentrio<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$10.17

Value

$10.31

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

26039-25715 (51754)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2609-2302 (4911)

6512395314597884<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

4791-4645 (9436)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.