Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$107.77

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 54.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,022

Combined PnL+$92.83

Under6 traders

Total Value$635.86

Total Shares1,272

Combined PnL+$14.94

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51.8¢	$846.46	$873.57	+$27.1	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 48.3¢	$639.66	$704.9	+$65.23	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 48¢	$168	$175	+$7	59% 3534-2417 (5951)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 48¢	$168	$175	+$7	26% 152-428 (580)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$209.26	$144.35	+$11.53	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$90.52	$94.16	+$3.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$48.18	$50.19	+$7.89
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$120	$125	+$5	52% 761-712 (1473)
OD OddstormCTR	Underavg 52¢	$123.44	$118.69	-$4.75	27% 52-141 (193)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 53¢	$64.64	$65.25	+$0.61	42% 291-405 (696)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$29.78	$29.98	+$0.2	54% 274-237 (511)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.7	$12.19	+$0.49	53% 933-821 (1754)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 52¢	$3.14	$3.02	-$0.12	52% 352-328 (680)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$846.46

Value

$873.57

PnL

+$27.1

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$639.66

Value

$704.9

PnL

+$65.23

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$175

PnL

+$7

Record

59%

3534-2417 (5951)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$175

PnL

+$7

Record

26%

152-428 (580)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$209.26

Value

$144.35

PnL

+$11.53

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

Both legs:

Under$90.5248.1¢+$3.64

Over$48.1848¢+$7.89

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$125

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

OddstormCTR

Under

Invested

$123.44

Value

$118.69

PnL

-$4.75

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$64.64

Value

$65.25

PnL

+$0.61

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.78

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

274-237 (511)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.19

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

352-328 (680)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.