Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Raptors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 108.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$2.9K
$36.43
52.9¢ → 49.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$74.39 | 59% 466-324 (790) |
PU purplegatto | Overavg 47¢ | $897.07 | $973.42 | +$76.35 | 68% 2613-1210 (3823) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 47¢ | $449.32 | $487.56 | +$38.24 | 52% 372-342 (714) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $186.03 | $107.3 | -$11.61 | 52% 836-757 (1593) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $66.12 | $66.12 | +$0 | 17% 50-253 (303) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $33.67 | $39.03 | +$5.36 | 48% 2320-2524 (4844) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $16.08 | $18.64 | +$2.56 | 48% 621-673 (1294) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $6.63 | $6.57 | -$0.06 | 44% 170-217 (387) |
Invested
$1,314.24
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$74.39
Record
59%
466-324 (790)
Invested
$897.07
Value
$973.42
PnL
+$76.35
Record
68%
2613-1210 (3823)
nigiri99Invested
$449.32
Value
$487.56
PnL
+$38.24
Record
52%
372-342 (714)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$186.03
Value
$107.3
PnL
-$11.61
Record
52%
836-757 (1593)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$66.12
Value
$66.12
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
50-253 (303)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$39.03
PnL
+$5.36
Record
48%
2320-2524 (4844)
poshposh<$100Invested
$16.08
Value
$18.64
PnL
+$2.56
Record
48%
621-673 (1294)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$6.57
PnL
-$0.06
Record
44%
170-217 (387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.