Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (47%) · Timberwolves at 72¢ · $51K held · ends Oct 25

Raptors28¢Timberwolves72¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.8K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 72¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors28%

Timberwolves72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$33.2K

Total Shares50,908

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares49,406

Combined PnL-$546.68

Timberwolves — 47%Raptors — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Raptors) and the top 1000 (11 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleRaptors 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Timberwolvesavg 55.3¢	$19.6K	$23.0K	+$3.4K	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Raptorsavg 44.7¢	$14.9K	$14.8K	-$80.76	49% 7172-7328 (14500)
SU SunlineTicker	Timberwolvesavg 59.8¢	$7.0K	$7.6K	+$591.92	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
TO tomb2456	Timberwolvesavg 60¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$157.85	51% 250-244 (494)
FO forecastication4CTR	Raptorsavg 38.3¢	$1.0K	$944.28	-$88.05	48% 946-1016 (1962)
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR	Raptorsavg 45¢	$500	$388.89	-$111.11	50% 17-17 (34)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Raptorsavg 45.2¢	$481.15	$372.34	-$108.81	52% 239-220 (459)
AD adururuCTR	Raptorsavg 46¢	$489.36	$372.34	-$117.02	54% 314-263 (577)
RN1CTR	Raptorsavg 38.2¢	$384.35	$351.75	-$32.6	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
RollAwayTheDewARB<$100	Raptorsavg 38.5¢	$352.38	$337.92	-$14.46	54% 255-214 (469)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 38.5¢	$288.34	$262.24	-$26.1
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 55¢	$64.04	$75.69	+$11.64
NA NatoAlfista	Timberwolvesavg 56¢	$278.32	$313.11	-$4.97	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Timberwolvesavg 55.4¢	$75.04	$84.4	+$9.36	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
balthazar<$100	Timberwolvesavg 66¢	$39.6	$39.6	+$0	64% 13150-7530 (20680)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$32.05	$24.93	-$7.12	50% 630-624 (1254)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 63¢	$11.34	$11.7	+$0.36	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 41¢	$8.2	$7	-$1.2	56% 6455-5169 (11624)

HomeRunHazard

Timberwolves

Invested

$19,594.96

Value

$23.0K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Raptors

Invested

$14,911.42

Value

$14.8K

PnL

-$80.76

Record

49%

7172-7328 (14500)

SunlineTicker

Timberwolves

Invested

$7,040.09

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$591.92

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

tomb2456

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,894.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$157.85

Record

51%

250-244 (494)

forecastication4CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,032.33

Value

$944.28

PnL

-$88.05

Record

48%

946-1016 (1962)

0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR

Raptors

Invested

$500

Value

$388.89

PnL

-$111.11

Record

50%

17-17 (34)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Raptors

Invested

$481.15

Value

$372.34

PnL

-$108.81

Record

52%

239-220 (459)

adururuCTR

Raptors

Invested

$489.36

Value

$372.34

PnL

-$117.02

Record

54%

314-263 (577)

RN1CTR

Raptors

Invested

$384.35

Value

$351.75

PnL

-$32.6

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

RollAwayTheDewARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$352.38

Value

$337.92

PnL

-$14.46

Record

54%

255-214 (469)

Both legs:

Raptors$288.3438.5¢-$26.1

Timberwolves$64.0455¢+$11.64

NatoAlfista

Timberwolves

Invested

$278.32

Value

$313.11

PnL

-$4.97

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$75.04

Value

$84.4

PnL

+$9.36

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

balthazar<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$39.6

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

13150-7530 (20680)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$32.05

Value

$24.93

PnL

-$7.12

Record

50%

630-624 (1254)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$11.34

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.36

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$8.2

Value

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Raptors) and the top 1000 (11 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleRaptors 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.