Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$4.57

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,878

Combined PnL-$18.34

Over10 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,740

Combined PnL+$22.91

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$84.46	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$4.83
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$89.29
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.87	57% 261-193 (454)
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.9	60% 145-96 (241)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 49¢	$640.92	$634.38	-$6.54	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$292.97	$298.49	+$5.51	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$239.2	$244.18	+$7.47	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$152.39	$150.84	-$1.55	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 50¢	$52.5	$53.03	+$0.52	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$47.5	+$0.5	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$45.2	$44.86	-$1.03	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$17.08	$17.15	+$0.07	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$14.6	$14.25	-$0.35	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.38	-$0.08	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,931.29

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$84.46

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$1,844.149.6¢-$4.83

Under$1,087.1949.4¢+$89.29

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.87

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,776.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.9

Record

60%

145-96 (241)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$640.92

Value

$634.38

PnL

-$6.54

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$292.97

Value

$298.49

PnL

+$5.51

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$239.2

Value

$244.18

PnL

+$7.47

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$152.39

Value

$150.84

PnL

-$1.55

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$52.5

Value

$53.03

PnL

+$0.52

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.2

Value

$44.86

PnL

-$1.03

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.08

Value

$17.15

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.6

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.