Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.7K
$150.11
49.1¢ → 52.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 49.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$138.11 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $341.93 | $345.57 | +$3.64 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 47.3¢ | $63.82 | $68.86 | +$5.04 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 47.8¢ | $55.01 | $59.41 | +$3.49 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $30.04 | $30.04 | +$0 | 50% 24945-24626 (49571) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $28.16 | $28.16 | +$0 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.45 | -$0.18 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
Invested
$2,061.58
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$138.11
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$341.93
Value
$345.57
PnL
+$3.64
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$63.82
Value
$68.86
PnL
+$5.04
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$55.01
Value
$59.41
PnL
+$3.49
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$30.04
Value
$30.04
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
24945-24626 (49571)
Invested
$28.16
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.