Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$5.5K
$4.71
48.9¢ → 50.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 48.9¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$77.09 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
PP ppku6298CTR | Overavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$75 | 45% 96-119 (215) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 48¢ | $211.2 | $222.2 | +$11 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 51.6¢ | $122.75 | $117.76 | -$4.99 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $92.31 | $89.6 | -$2.72 | 53% 5696-5032 (10728) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $9.88 | $9.41 | -$0.48 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 51.5¢ | $5.15 | $4.95 | -$0.2 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
Invested
$2,510.95
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$77.09
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$2,550
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$75
Record
45%
96-119 (215)
Invested
$211.2
Value
$222.2
PnL
+$11
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$122.75
Value
$117.76
PnL
-$4.99
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$92.31
Value
$89.6
PnL
-$2.72
Record
53%
5696-5032 (10728)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$9.41
PnL
-$0.48
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.