Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Lakers (52%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (33%) · Raptors at 49¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
6
Raptors 33%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
$3.21
48.9¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Raptorsavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.22 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Lakersavg 51¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$34.38 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
HE Herdonia | Lakersavg 51¢ | $834.21 | $842.41 | +$8.2 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lakersavg 51¢ | $287.71 | $257.5 | +$3.89 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 43¢ | $49.45 | $55.2 | +$5.18 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 48¢ | $54.48 | $53.36 | -$1.11 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 48¢ | $27.84 | $28.13 | +$0.29 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 54.4¢ | $26.64 | $25.24 | -$1.41 | |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Lakersavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | -$0.23 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,725.09
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.22
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$3,505.77
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$34.38
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$834.21
Value
$842.41
PnL
+$8.2
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
VeryLucky888Invested
$287.71
Value
$257.5
PnL
+$3.89
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$49.45
Value
$55.2
PnL
+$5.18
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$54.48
Value
$53.36
PnL
-$1.11
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.23
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.