Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
8
Lakers 50%
$6.3K
$56.24
55¢ → 56.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Lakersavg 55¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$77.96 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
AS askilikaCTR | Raptorsavg 45¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$25.56 | 50% 205-209 (414) |
HE Herdonia | Lakersavg 55¢ | $315.94 | $318.81 | +$2.88 | 54% 3405-2950 (6355) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Raptorsavg 43¢ | $227.04 | $229.68 | +$2.64 | 60% 146-96 (242) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Raptorsavg 44¢ | $221.98 | $221.98 | +$0 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 44¢ | $80.31 | $79.43 | -$0.88 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lakersavg 57.9¢ | $20.25 | $19.25 | -$0.82 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Lakersavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.75 | +$0.03 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
Invested
$3,034.11
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$77.96
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$2,300
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$25.56
Record
50%
205-209 (414)
Invested
$315.94
Value
$318.81
PnL
+$2.88
Record
54%
3405-2950 (6355)
Invested
$227.04
Value
$229.68
PnL
+$2.64
Record
60%
146-96 (242)
Invested
$221.98
Value
$221.98
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$80.31
Value
$79.43
PnL
-$0.88
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$20.25
Value
$19.25
PnL
-$0.82
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.