Raptors vs. Lakers
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (83%) · Lakers at 63¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
6
Lakers 83%
1 arb excluded
$8.2K
-$230.29
64.4¢ → 62.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Lakersavg 64.9¢ | $6.1K | $5.9K | -$226.26 | 59% 256-177 (433) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lakersavg 62¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$9.1 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Raptorsavg 38¢ | $999.78 | $986.63 | -$13.15 | 53% 4274-3735 (8009) |
RO rocky42019ARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 33¢ | $180.5 | $192.5 | +$14.16 | 42% 1723-2353 (4076) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 33¢ | $99 | $111 | +$13.5 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 62¢ | $81.5 | $81.5 | +$0.66 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lakersavg 62.5¢ | $23.75 | $23.56 | +$0 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Lakersavg 62¢ | $6.2 | $6.25 | +$0.05 | 55% 7306-5879 (13185) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Lakersavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.1 | -$0.03 | 52% 7473-6774 (14247) |
Invested
$6,140.41
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$226.26
Record
59%
256-177 (433)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,128.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$9.1
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Invested
$999.78
Value
$986.63
PnL
-$13.15
Record
53%
4274-3735 (8009)
Invested
$180.5
Value
$192.5
PnL
+$14.16
Record
42%
1723-2353 (4076)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.75
Value
$23.56
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
7306-5879 (13185)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7473-6774 (14247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.