Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Raptors vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$1.3K
-$39.81
45.6¢ → 42.5¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 56.9¢ | $574.36 | $580.1 | +$5.74 | 62% 4302-2642 (6944) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45.6¢ | $398.75 | $371.88 | -$26.87 | 58% 43898-31943 (75841) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $225 | $212.5 | -$12.5 | 53% 5767-5107 (10874) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $84.76 | $75.05 | -$4.41 | 45% 13208-16070 (29278) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.7¢ | $27.93 | $27.13 | -$0.8 | 54% 3482-3017 (6499) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $9.9 | $9.35 | -$0.55 | 58% 29982-22010 (51992) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 45.3¢ | $6.8 | $6.38 | -$0.42 | 52% 8302-7535 (15837) |
Invested
$574.36
Value
$580.1
PnL
+$5.74
Record
62%
4302-2642 (6944)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$398.75
Value
$371.88
PnL
-$26.87
Record
58%
43898-31943 (75841)
Invested
$225
Value
$212.5
PnL
-$12.5
Record
53%
5767-5107 (10874)
Invested
$84.76
Value
$75.05
PnL
-$4.41
Record
45%
13208-16070 (29278)
Invested
$27.93
Value
$27.13
PnL
-$0.8
Record
54%
3482-3017 (6499)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.35
PnL
-$0.55
Record
58%
29982-22010 (51992)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$6.38
PnL
-$0.42
Record
52%
8302-7535 (15837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.