Raptors vs. Clippers

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (11%) · Raptors at 66¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Raptors66¢Clippers34¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 11%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$29.91

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors66%

Clippers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors1 trader

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares9,901

Combined PnL+$0

Clippers8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,000

Combined PnL+$29.91

Raptors — 11%Clippers — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Raptorsavg 65¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$0	— 7-6 (13)
VeryLucky888CTR	Clippersavg 33.7¢	$998.77	$1.0K	+$23.96	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 35¢	$700	$700	+$0	52% 2923-2744 (5667)
HI hi774cCTR	Clippersavg 35¢	$665	$665	+$9.5	51% 4852-4594 (9446)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Clippersavg 34.7¢	$188.87	$188.13	-$0.74	54% 3475-3012 (6487)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Clippersavg 35¢	$118.74	$117.13	-$1.61	49% 13477-14173 (27650)
funnydayCTR<$100	Clippersavg 35¢	$70	$69	-$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Clippersavg 34¢	$34	$34.5	+$0.5	54% 11661-10122 (21783)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clippersavg 35.7¢	$32.99	$3.77	-$0.69	57% 17226-12892 (30118)

AppleTiiime

Raptors

Invested

$6,435.91

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

7-6 (13)

VeryLucky888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$998.77

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.96

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$700

Value

$700

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2923-2744 (5667)

hi774cCTR

Clippers

Invested

$665

Value

$665

PnL

+$9.5

Record

51%

4852-4594 (9446)

HerdoniaCTR

Clippers

Invested

$188.87

Value

$188.13

PnL

-$0.74

Record

54%

3475-3012 (6487)

LuckyLooCTR

Clippers

Invested

$118.74

Value

$117.13

PnL

-$1.61

Record

49%

13477-14173 (27650)

funnydayCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$70

Value

$69

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$34

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

11661-10122 (21783)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$32.99

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0.69

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.