Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 49¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$72.99

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 48.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,578

Combined PnL+$33.21

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,943

Combined PnL+$39.78

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$32.84	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$99.09	26% 249-694 (943)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$80.53	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$257.49	$239.87	-$0.06	53% 1889-1647 (3536)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$172.91	$180.07	+$7.16	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$178.5	+$7	42% 548-747 (1295)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 49¢	$139.16	$144.84	+$5.68	48% 3952-4304 (8256)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$38.56	$40.19	+$1.63	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$16.32	$16.18	-$0.14	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.55	-$0.05	43% 852-1137 (1989)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.53	+$0.13	37% 1335-2230 (3565)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.45	+$0.25	35% 628-1146 (1774)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$3,349.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$32.84

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$2,427.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$99.09

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,831.55

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$80.53

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$257.49

Value

$239.87

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

1889-1647 (3536)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$172.91

Value

$180.07

PnL

+$7.16

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$178.5

PnL

+$7

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$139.16

Value

$144.84

PnL

+$5.68

Record

48%

3952-4304 (8256)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.56

Value

$40.19

PnL

+$1.63

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.18

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

852-1137 (1989)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

37%

1335-2230 (3565)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.