Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 223.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$172.39

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 54.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,148

Combined PnL+$155.71

Under7 traders

Total Value$658.47

Total Shares1,294

Combined PnL+$16.68

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$149.74	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
HI hi774c	Overavg 49¢	$358.98	$366.31	+$7.33	26% 249-694 (943)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49¢	$259.7	$265	+$5.3	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$179.69	$185.02	+$5.33	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$176.75	+$5.25	42% 547-747 (1294)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 52.4¢	$107.91	$108.18	+$0.27	46% 621-730 (1351)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Overavg 51¢	$103.63	$101.6	-$2.03	51% 22-21 (43)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 50¢	$19.6	$20	+$0.4	56% 663-529 (1192)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$18.15	$18.73	+$0.58	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$4.95	$5.05	+$0.1	43% 851-1135 (1986)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.55	+$0.05	39% 234-370 (604)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.31	$3.38	+$0.07	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,661.89

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$149.74

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$358.98

Value

$366.31

PnL

+$7.33

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$259.7

Value

$265

PnL

+$5.3

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$179.69

Value

$185.02

PnL

+$5.33

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$107.91

Value

$108.18

PnL

+$0.27

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Over

Invested

$103.63

Value

$101.6

PnL

-$2.03

Record

51%

22-21 (43)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$19.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.15

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.07

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.