Spread: Spurs (-15.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (31%) · Jazz at 51¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Spurs50¢Jazz50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 31%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$37.07

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs50%

Jazz51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares17,036

Combined PnL+$116.25

Spurs9 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,900

Combined PnL-$79.19

Jazz — 31%Spurs — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (12 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrSpurs 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Jazzavg 50¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	+$76.5	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Spursavg 50¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$66.6	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
SE sentrioCTR	Spursavg 49.9¢	$518.81	$514.39	-$4.41	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 50¢	$496.7	$501.67	+$4.97	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
HI hi774cCTR	Spursavg 50¢	$499.97	$494.97	-$5	26% 249-695 (944)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Spursavg 50¢	$469	$464.31	-$4.69	45% 74-89 (163)
LI Limousin	Jazzavg 45¢	$315	$350	+$35	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
38 38791873984189CTR	Spursavg 50¢	$122.5	$121.28	-$1.22	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Spursavg 48¢	$75.35	$77.7	+$2.35	39% 234-370 (604)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spursavg 48.7¢	$42.38	$43.07	+$0.69	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$39.85	$39.45	-$0.4	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
JU justwins<$100	Jazzavg 51¢	$21.63	$21.42	-$0.21	50% 127-126 (253)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.9	+$0.1	56% 679-534 (1213)

VeryLucky888

Jazz

Invested

$7,650

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$76.5

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Spurs

Invested

$6,667.94

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$66.6

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

sentrioCTR

Spurs

Invested

$518.81

Value

$514.39

PnL

-$4.41

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$496.7

Value

$501.67

PnL

+$4.97

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

hi774cCTR

Spurs

Invested

$499.97

Value

$494.97

PnL

-$5

Record

26%

249-695 (944)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Spurs

Invested

$469

Value

$464.31

PnL

-$4.69

Record

45%

74-89 (163)

Limousin

Jazz

Invested

$315

Value

$350

PnL

+$35

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

38791873984189CTR

Spurs

Invested

$122.5

Value

$121.28

PnL

-$1.22

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$75.35

Value

$77.7

PnL

+$2.35

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$42.38

Value

$43.07

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$39.85

Value

$39.45

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

justwins<$100

Jazz

Invested

$21.63

Value

$21.42

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

127-126 (253)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (12 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrSpurs 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.