Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (64%) · Spurs at 54¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Spurs54¢Jazz46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 64%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$23.37

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs54%

Jazz47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs7 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares17,025

Combined PnL-$224.14

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares16,595

Combined PnL+$247.51

Spurs — 64%Jazz — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (10 on Spurs) disagree here.

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 54.9¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$204.98	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 45.1¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$224.51	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
scootergene	Spursavg 55¢	$768.32	$747.21	-$21.11	11% 18-140 (158)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$394.55	$416.97	+$22.42	69% 1738-777 (2515)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Spursavg 57¢	$302.1	$291.56	-$10.54	36% 26-47 (73)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 51¢	$154.02	$161.57	+$7.55	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
RollAwayTheDew	Spursavg 51¢	$102	$107	+$5	18% 63-282 (345)
0xheavy888<$100	Spursavg 53¢	$10.6	$10.7	+$0.1	56% 679-534 (1213)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$24.93	$7.79	+$0.46	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
SU suntori<$100	Spursavg 57¢	$4.76	$4.59	-$0.17	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.33	+$0.13	43% 867-1151 (2018)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$7,999.05

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$204.98

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$7,067.89

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$224.51

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

scootergene

Spurs

Invested

$768.32

Value

$747.21

PnL

-$21.11

Record

11%

18-140 (158)

SunlineTickerCTR

Jazz

Invested

$394.55

Value

$416.97

PnL

+$22.42

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Spurs

Invested

$302.1

Value

$291.56

PnL

-$10.54

Record

36%

26-47 (73)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$154.02

Value

$161.57

PnL

+$7.55

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

RollAwayTheDew

Spurs

Invested

$102

Value

$107

PnL

+$5

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

0xheavy888<$100

Spurs

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$24.93

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$0.46

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

suntori<$100

Spurs

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.17

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.13

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (10 on Spurs) disagree here.

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.