Spread: Spurs (-13.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (60%) · Spurs at 54¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 15

Spurs54¢Jazz46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

-$384.67

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 53.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs54%

Jazz47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs6 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares26,787

Combined PnL-$880.69

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares15,689

Combined PnL+$496.03

Spurs — 60%Jazz — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (9 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrJazz 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 57¢	$15.9K	$15.0K	-$849.39	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 43.6¢	$8.1K	$7.0K	+$483.17	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Spursavg 56¢	$560	$535	-$25	30% 501-1144 (1645)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Jazzavg 45¢	$271.52	$280.73	+$9.21	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$200	$204	+$4	63% 147-86 (233)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$100	$112	+$12
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 58¢	$176.32	$148.34	-$5.3	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$32.09	$34.72	+$2.62	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 56.7¢	$35.76	$19.37	-$0.38	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$18.08	$19.11	+$1.03	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
0xheavy888<$100	Spursavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.7	-$0.5	56% 693-539 (1232)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Spursavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.68	-$0.12	43% 875-1153 (2028)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$15,876.55

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$849.39

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$8,116.49

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$483.17

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Spurs

Invested

$560

Value

$535

PnL

-$25

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

MadridTimeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$271.52

Value

$280.73

PnL

+$9.21

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$200

Value

$204

PnL

+$4

Record

63%

147-86 (233)

Both legs:

Invested

$176.32

Value

$148.34

PnL

-$5.3

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$32.09

Value

$34.72

PnL

+$2.62

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$35.76

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$18.08

Value

$19.11

PnL

+$1.03

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

0xheavy888<$100

Spurs

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

ameisgoat11<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.12

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (9 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrJazz 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.