Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$1.16

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 90¢

+65% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$863.6

Total Shares1,469

Combined PnL+$39.21

Over2 traders

Total Value$330.15

Total Shares925

Combined PnL-$40.37

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.5¢	$524.98	$549.36	+$24.38	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 40.5¢	$368.41	$327.6	-$40.81	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 61¢	$299.41	$314.24	+$14.83	62% 4023-2463 (6486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$346.47	$174.9	-$173.63	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$73.39	$133.11	+$60.44
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$273.08	$41.8	-$234.07
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$2.1	$2.55	+$0.44	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$524.98

Value

$549.36

PnL

+$24.38

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$368.41

Value

$327.6

PnL

-$40.81

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$299.41

Value

$314.24

PnL

+$14.83

Record

62%

4023-2463 (6486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$346.47

Value

$174.9

PnL

-$173.63

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Under$73.3951¢+$60.44

Over$273.0849¢-$234.07

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.