Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 89¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$11.6K
$-1.7K
53.4¢ → 89¢
+67% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 89%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 57¢ | $4.8K | $5.1K | +$293.14 | 62% 4023-2463 (6486) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $3.1K | $2.8K | -$287.71 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.1K | -$302.3 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.9¢ | $698.96 | $713.56 | +$14.59 | |
GA gagarin59 | Underavg 45¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$63.49 | 52% 657-608 (1265) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$101.5 | 51% 846-800 (1646) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 43.2¢ | $2.4K | $448.96 | $-1.9K | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 49¢ | $310.63 | $332.09 | +$21.61 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 49¢ | $268.57 | $257.74 | -$10.83 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $10.7 | $10 | -$0.7 | 50% 4446-4371 (8817) |
Invested
$4,774.07
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$293.14
Record
62%
4023-2463 (6486)
Invested
$3,117.59
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$287.71
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,431.06
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$63.49
Record
52%
657-608 (1265)
Invested
$1,247
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$101.5
Record
51%
846-800 (1646)
Invested
$2,421.68
Value
$448.96
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$310.63
Value
$332.09
PnL
+$21.61
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$268.57
Value
$257.74
PnL
-$10.83
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
4446-4371 (8817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.