Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 52¢ · $926 held · ends Oct 29

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$925.86

Combined PnL

$5.59

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$742.51

Total Shares1,407

Combined PnL+$7.18

Over3 traders

Total Value$183.35

Total Shares386

Combined PnL-$1.59

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52¢	$730.13	$737.15	+$7.02	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
WO woshikd99CTR	Overavg 48¢	$168.96	$167.2	-$1.76	50% 31-31 (62)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.63	$13.77	+$0.14	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
MO mooseborzoii<$100	Underavg 51¢	$5.2	$5.36	+$0.15	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$730.13

Value

$737.15

PnL

+$7.02

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

woshikd99CTR

Over

Invested

$168.96

Value

$167.2

PnL

-$1.76

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.63

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

mooseborzoii<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.