Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (77%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 24¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 23.5¢

-58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,709

Combined PnL+$711.29

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares8,220

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 44.4¢	$3.7K	$4.4K	+$694.01	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 56¢	$2.3K	$653.76	$-1.5K	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 56¢	$1.5K	$466.92	$-1.0K	46% 410-475 (885)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 53¢	$394.76	$417.1	+$22.34	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 50¢	$278.66	$295.38	+$16.72	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$278.66	$100.32	-$175.56	49% 559-583 (1142)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$39.99	$39.3	-$0.69	65% 1674-905 (2579)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 51¢	$14.21	$14.77	+$0.56	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$2.9	$3.9	+$1	50% 4446-4371 (8817)
RN1<$100	Underavg 43¢	$3.77	$3.77	-$0	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
BU BullishBarb<$100	Underavg 43¢	$1.34	$1.34	-$0	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$3.63	$1.06	-$2.57	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,657.78

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$694.01

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,288.16

Value

$653.76

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$1,538.1

Value

$466.92

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

46%

410-475 (885)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$394.76

Value

$417.1

PnL

+$22.34

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$278.66

Value

$295.38

PnL

+$16.72

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$278.66

Value

$100.32

PnL

-$175.56

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.99

Value

$39.3

PnL

-$0.69

Record

65%

1674-905 (2579)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$14.21

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

4446-4371 (8817)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

BullishBarb<$100

Under

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.63

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$2.57

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.