Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (72%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 28¢ · $643 held · ended Oct 29

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$642.55

Combined PnL

-$43

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 28.5¢

-53% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$342.01

Total Shares590

Combined PnL-$17.37

Under5 traders

Total Value$300.54

Total Shares427

Combined PnL-$25.63

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 61¢	$357.26	$339.69	-$17.57	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
BU BullishBarb	Underavg 39¢	$139.26	$257.99	-$23.08	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 46¢	$36.8	$33.6	-$3.2	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 36¢	$4.79	$5.59	+$0.8	57% 13241-10089 (23330)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.12	$2.32	+$0.2	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$2.34	$2.1	-$0.24	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.17	$1.26	+$0.09	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$357.26

Value

$339.69

PnL

-$17.57

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

BullishBarb

Under

Invested

$139.26

Value

$257.99

PnL

-$23.08

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$36.8

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$3.2

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.79

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$0.8

Record

57%

13241-10089 (23330)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.