Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spurs, while the market favors Jazz (61%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (80%) · Spurs at 40¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29

Spurs40¢Jazz60¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 80%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$59.38

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 39.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs40%

Jazz61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz1 trader

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,867

Combined PnL+$29.57

Spurs4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,199

Combined PnL+$29.81

Jazz — 20%Spurs — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Spursavg 50¢	$6.4K	$6.1K	-$220.93	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.8¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$310.94
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.0K	-$531.87
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 43.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$29.57	49% 559-583 (1142)
GA gagarin59CTR	Spursavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30.36	52% 657-608 (1265)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Spursavg 48.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.38	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.4¢	$521.05	$637.88	+$116.83
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.8¢	$535.82	$433.37	-$102.44
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Spursavg 51¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 48¢	$480	$515	+$35
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 51¢	$510	$485	-$25
WO woshikd99ARB<$100	Jazzavg 45.5¢	$529.81	$598.67	+$68.86	51% 32-31 (63)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 45.5¢	$273.09	$333	+$59.91
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 43¢	$256.72	$265.67	+$8.94
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Spursavg 63¢	$286.21	$259.81	-$27.96	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 63¢	$197.19	$172.15	-$26.61
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 45.7¢	$89.02	$87.66	-$1.36
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Spursavg 44¢	$43.55	$42.07	-$1.48	49% 18690-19120 (37810)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Spursavg 62.8¢	$18.85	$19.8	+$0.95	50% 6821-6834 (13655)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Spursavg 55¢	$1.88	$1.86	-$0.02	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$6,350.1

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$220.93

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Jazz$2,805.0451.8¢+$310.94

Spurs$3,545.0650¢-$531.87

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$1,418.83

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$29.57

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

gagarin59CTR

Spurs

Invested

$1,411.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.36

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

takeormakeARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,056.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.38

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Jazz$521.0549.4¢+$116.83

Spurs$535.8248.8¢-$102.44

Anon455ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Invested

$529.81

Value

$598.67

PnL

+$68.86

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

Both legs:

Jazz$273.0945.5¢+$59.91

Spurs$256.7243¢+$8.94

BullishBarbARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$286.21

Value

$259.81

PnL

-$27.96

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

Both legs:

Spurs$197.1963¢-$26.61

Jazz$89.0245.7¢-$1.36

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$43.55

Value

$42.07

PnL

-$1.48

Record

49%

18690-19120 (37810)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$18.85

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

6821-6834 (13655)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.