Spread: Spurs (-7.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (29%) · Jazz at 56¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 29

Spurs45¢Jazz55¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 29%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$416.74

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 55.5¢

+39% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs45%

Jazz56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,847

Combined PnL+$407.4

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$407.71

Total Shares710

Combined PnL+$9.34

Jazz — 29%Spurs — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Spursavg 51.2¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	-$37.39	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.4¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$68.89
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 51.2¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$106.29
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 39.9¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$408.63	49% 559-583 (1142)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Spursavg 51.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$23.98	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 51.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$47.99
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 45.8¢	$698.21	$770.18	+$71.96
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Jazzavg 47.4¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$159.93	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$165.17
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 58.5¢	$580.04	$585.28	+$5.24
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$65	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49¢	$980	$930	-$50
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 55¢	$550	$535	-$15
RN1CTR	Spursavg 71¢	$177.5	$172.5	-$5	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
WO woshikd99CTR	Spursavg 48¢	$144	$148.5	+$4.5	51% 32-31 (63)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$69.09	$78.65	+$9.56	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
HRTradingARB<$100	Jazzavg 38.3¢	$54.1	$62.46	+$8.36	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 38.3¢	$28.42	$34.11	+$5.69
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.9¢	$25.68	$28.35	+$2.67
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$10.6	$5.34	-$1.23	53% 2097-1856 (3953)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Spursavg 71¢	$4.26	$4.14	-$0.12	57% 13241-10089 (23330)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Spursavg 48¢	$3.52	$3.93	+$0.4	53% 6109-5348 (11457)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$6,211.06

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$37.39

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Jazz$3,089.2249.4¢+$68.89

Spurs$3,121.8451.2¢-$106.29

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$1,674.04

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$408.63

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

takeormakeARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,879.27

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$23.98

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Spurs$1,181.0651.6¢-$47.99

Jazz$698.2145.8¢+$71.96

BullishBarbARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,798.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$159.93

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,218.7447.4¢-$165.17

Spurs$580.0458.5¢+$5.24

Anon455ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$65

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Invested

$177.5

Value

$172.5

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

woshikd99CTR

Spurs

Invested

$144

Value

$148.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

torta.techCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$69.09

Value

$78.65

PnL

+$9.56

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

HRTradingARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$54.1

Value

$62.46

PnL

+$8.36

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Both legs:

Jazz$28.4238.3¢+$5.69

Spurs$25.6848.9¢+$2.67

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10.6

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

2097-1856 (3953)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$0.12

Record

57%

13241-10089 (23330)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.