Spread: Spurs (-6.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (50%) · Spurs at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Spurs72¢Jazz28¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$12.17

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs72%

Jazz28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,628

Combined PnL+$9.45

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,817

Combined PnL-$21.62

Spurs — 50%Jazz — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BullishBarb	Spursavg 71.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$10.36	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 29¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.55	54% 3824-3297 (7121)
RN1CTR	Jazzavg 29¢	$147.14	$147.07	-$0.07	54% 55758-47850 (103608)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Spursavg 71¢	$42.85	$41.94	-$0.91	52% 318-288 (606)

BullishBarb

Spurs

Invested

$1,825.21

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$10.36

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,249.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.55

Record

54%

3824-3297 (7121)

RN1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$147.14

Value

$147.07

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

55758-47850 (103608)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Spurs

Invested

$42.85

Value

$41.94

PnL

-$0.91

Record

52%

318-288 (606)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.