Spread: Spurs (-16.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (67%) · Jazz at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Spurs41¢Jazz59¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 67%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$74.87

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 59.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs41%

Jazz60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,739

Combined PnL+$78.83

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$41.73

Total Shares118

Combined PnL-$3.96

Jazz — 67%Spurs — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Jazzavg 62¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$71.77	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
RN1	Jazzavg 60.3¢	$647.62	$644.38	-$3.24	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
VeryLucky888	Jazzavg 60¢	$300	$300	+$0	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 61¢	$179.59	$189.89	+$10.3	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Spursavg 39¢	$39.78	$36.21	-$3.57	38% 848-1408 (2256)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Spursavg 38¢	$5.91	$5.52	-$0.39	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

SunlineTicker

Jazz

Invested

$1,779.78

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$71.77

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$647.62

Value

$644.38

PnL

-$3.24

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

VeryLucky888

Jazz

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$179.59

Value

$189.89

PnL

+$10.3

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$39.78

Value

$36.21

PnL

-$3.57

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.