Spread: Spurs (-15.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (60%) · Jazz at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29

Spurs44¢Jazz56¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 60%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$40.52

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 56¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs44%

Jazz56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,588

Combined PnL+$119.67

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,679

Combined PnL-$79.15

Jazz — 60%Spurs — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 59¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$111.35	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Spursavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$79.62	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
RN1	Jazzavg 59¢	$151.31	$158.82	+$7.52	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
0xheavy888<$100	Jazzavg 58¢	$11.6	$12.4	+$0.8	56% 6915-5530 (12445)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Spursavg 41.1¢	$10.28	$10.75	+$0.47	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$2,792.88

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$111.35

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

SunlineTickerCTR

Spurs

Invested

$1,088.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$79.62

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$151.31

Value

$158.82

PnL

+$7.52

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

0xheavy888<$100

Jazz

Invested

$11.6

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

6915-5530 (12445)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$10.28

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.