Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (57%) · Jazz at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
7
Jazz 57%
$1.2K
-$13.99
55.1¢ → 52.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Jazzavg 55.8¢ | $352 | $353.31 | +$1.31 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Spursavg 46¢ | $353.72 | $338.58 | -$15.14 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jazzavg 54¢ | $270 | $267.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Spursavg 43.5¢ | $250.69 | $253.71 | +$3.02 | 54% 16871-14147 (31018) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Jazzavg 59¢ | $15.34 | $14.56 | -$0.91 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Jazzavg 55¢ | $11 | $11.2 | +$0.2 | 56% 6915-5530 (12445) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Spursavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.23 | +$0.03 | 47% 2056-2353 (4409) |
RN1Invested
$352
Value
$353.31
PnL
+$1.31
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$353.72
Value
$338.58
PnL
-$15.14
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
VeryLucky888Invested
$270
Value
$267.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$250.69
Value
$253.71
PnL
+$3.02
Record
54%
16871-14147 (31018)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$14.56
PnL
-$0.91
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
6915-5530 (12445)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2056-2353 (4409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.