Spread: Spurs (-13.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (71%) · Jazz at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Spurs46¢Jazz54¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 71%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$8.75

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs46%

Jazz55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,343

Combined PnL+$13.07

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$695.55

Total Shares1,581

Combined PnL-$4.32

Jazz — 71%Spurs — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 55¢	$657.01	$669.39	+$12.38	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Jazzavg 56¢	$560	$560	-$0	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Spursavg 44.2¢	$521.87	$519.55	-$2.32	38% 847-1408 (2255)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Spursavg 45¢	$180	$176	-$2	54% 375-322 (697)
WO woshikd99<$100	Jazzavg 56¢	$64.4	$63.25	+$0.58	50% 31-31 (62)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$15.4	$15.4	+$0.14	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jazzavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	-$0.03	47% 2038-2342 (4380)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$657.01

Value

$669.39

PnL

+$12.38

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Jazz

Invested

$560

Value

$560

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

BullishBarbCTR

Spurs

Invested

$521.87

Value

$519.55

PnL

-$2.32

Record

38%

847-1408 (2255)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Spurs

Invested

$180

Value

$176

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

375-322 (697)

woshikd99<$100

Jazz

Invested

$64.4

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Jazz

Invested

$15.4

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.