Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Spurs (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (56%) · Jazz at 50¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
9
Jazz 56%
$13.6K
$94.22
51.8¢ → 49.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Jazzavg 52¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | -$0 | 54% 1174-996 (2170) |
BU BullishBarb | Spursavg 48¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$1.15 | 38% 847-1408 (2255) |
WO woshikd99 | Spursavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$75.03 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Jazzavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$24.51 | 54% 3823-3295 (7118) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jazzavg 51¢ | $255 | $150.48 | -$6.52 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 52¢ | $46.01 | $46.01 | +$0 | 58% 28119-20724 (48843) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Spursavg 48¢ | $29.62 | $29.62 | +$0 | 51% 193-189 (382) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Jazzavg 52¢ | $7.55 | $7.6 | +$0.05 | 47% 2038-2342 (4380) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Spursavg 48¢ | $2.16 | $2.16 | +$0 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$6,499.98
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
1174-996 (2170)
Invested
$4,045.14
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$1.15
Record
38%
847-1408 (2255)
Invested
$1,440.48
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$75.03
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$1,250.01
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$24.51
Record
54%
3823-3295 (7118)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$255
Value
$150.48
PnL
-$6.52
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$46.01
Value
$46.01
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28119-20724 (48843)
Invested
$29.62
Value
$29.62
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
193-189 (382)
Invested
$7.55
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2038-2342 (4380)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.