Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Spurs (54%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-11.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (75%) · Jazz at 47¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29

Spurs54¢Jazz46¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$90.52

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs54%

Jazz47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares12,690

Combined PnL-$48.39

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,381

Combined PnL-$42.13

Jazz — 75%Spurs — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$30	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$20.01	38% 847-1408 (2255)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.21
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 53¢	$508.8	$499.2	-$4.8
WO woshikd99CTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$44.89	50% 31-31 (62)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$26.6	54% 3823-3295 (7118)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Spursavg 55¢	$713.6	$674.67	-$32.44	54% 375-322 (697)
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 52.9¢	$572.98	$563.28	-$9.7	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$480	$480	-$0	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$30.44	$30.12	-$0.02	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.4	-$0.08	47% 2038-2342 (4380)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,880

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$30

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,968.67

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20.01

Record

38%

847-1408 (2255)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,459.8748¢-$15.21

Spurs$508.853¢-$4.8

woshikd99CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,436.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$44.89

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,250.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.6

Record

54%

3823-3295 (7118)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Spurs

Invested

$713.6

Value

$674.67

PnL

-$32.44

Record

54%

375-322 (697)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$572.98

Value

$563.28

PnL

-$9.7

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Jazz

Invested

$480

Value

$480

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30.44

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.