Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (43%) · Spurs at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29

Spurs56¢Jazz44¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 43%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$22.39

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs56%

Jazz44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,885

Combined PnL+$7.76

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,989

Combined PnL+$14.63

Spurs — 43%Jazz — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 55.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$5.23	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.21	54% 3823-3295 (7118)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Spursavg 56¢	$728	$728	+$0	54% 375-322 (697)
WO woshikd99	Spursavg 56¢	$283.36	$285.89	+$2.53	50% 31-31 (62)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$39.82	$39.82	+$0.45	38% 847-1408 (2255)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$22.88	$22.88	+$0	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.2	-$0.03	47% 2038-2342 (4380)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$1,719.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$5.23

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,250.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.21

Record

54%

3823-3295 (7118)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Spurs

Invested

$728

Value

$728

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

375-322 (697)

woshikd99

Spurs

Invested

$283.36

Value

$285.89

PnL

+$2.53

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$39.82

Value

$39.82

PnL

+$0.45

Record

38%

847-1408 (2255)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.88

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.