Spurs vs. Jazz
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (67%) · Spurs at 83¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
6
Spurs 67%
$1.3K
-$66.9
82.6¢ → 82.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Jazzavg 17¢ | $444.91 | $457.99 | +$13.09 | 54% 1174-996 (2170) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Spursavg 84¢ | $443.59 | $398.7 | -$44.89 | 54% 16846-14132 (30978) |
PU purplegatto | Spursavg 80.5¢ | $314.01 | $294.51 | -$19.5 | 50% 5768-5878 (11646) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Spursavg 83¢ | $156.9 | $142.73 | -$14.18 | 52% 2017-1845 (3862) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 18¢ | $36 | $35 | -$1 | 50% 3892-3871 (7763) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Spursavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $3.78 | -$0.43 | 47% 2037-2339 (4376) |
Invested
$444.91
Value
$457.99
PnL
+$13.09
Record
54%
1174-996 (2170)
Invested
$443.59
Value
$398.7
PnL
-$44.89
Record
54%
16846-14132 (30978)
Invested
$314.01
Value
$294.51
PnL
-$19.5
Record
50%
5768-5878 (11646)
Invested
$156.9
Value
$142.73
PnL
-$14.18
Record
52%
2017-1845 (3862)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$36
Value
$35
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
3892-3871 (7763)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.43
Record
47%
2037-2339 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.