Spurs vs. Kings

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (56%) · Spurs at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Spurs90¢Kings10¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$120.47

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 89.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs90%

Kings11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares10,871

Combined PnL+$118.95

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,361

Combined PnL+$1.53

Kings — 44%Spurs — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Kingsavg 9.1¢	$848.8	$975.47	+$126.67	46% 5201-6053 (11254)
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 89.5¢	$888.86	$888.97	+$0.1	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
OD Oddstorm	Spursavg 88.3¢	$228.95	$226.51	-$2.43	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 10.9¢	$230.27	$226.47	-$3.8	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 10.9¢	$146.08	$141.11	-$4.97
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 88.3¢	$84.19	$85.36	+$1.17
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Kingsavg 11.5¢	$152.96	$146.44	-$6.52	54% 522-445 (967)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Spursavg 87¢	$86.95	$88.95	+$2	64% 1963-1092 (3055)
GA Gaditima<$100	Spursavg 84.2¢	$23.69	$25.03	+$1.54	48% 7403-8107 (15510)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 10.8¢	$35.23	$22.64	+$0.96	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Kingsavg 12.6¢	$13.1	$10.93	-$2.17	49% 6296-6457 (12753)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Spursavg 84.2¢	$9.15	$9.67	+$0.32	51% 4772-4633 (9405)

hi774cCTR

Kings

Invested

$848.8

Value

$975.47

PnL

+$126.67

Record

46%

5201-6053 (11254)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$888.86

Value

$888.97

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

Oddstorm

Spurs

Invested

$228.95

Value

$226.51

PnL

-$2.43

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$230.27

Value

$226.47

PnL

-$3.8

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

Both legs:

Kings$146.0810.9¢-$4.97

Spurs$84.1988.3¢+$1.17

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Kings

Invested

$152.96

Value

$146.44

PnL

-$6.52

Record

54%

522-445 (967)

darkumbreon88<$100

Spurs

Invested

$86.95

Value

$88.95

PnL

+$2

Record

64%

1963-1092 (3055)

Gaditima<$100

Spurs

Invested

$23.69

Value

$25.03

PnL

+$1.54

Record

48%

7403-8107 (15510)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$35.23

Value

$22.64

PnL

+$0.96

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$13.1

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$2.17

Record

49%

6296-6457 (12753)

6512395314597884<$100

Spurs

Invested

$9.15

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.