Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Spurs (57%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (33%) · Suns at 43¢ · $655 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
6
Suns 33%
$655.04
$9.93
41.5¢ → 42.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sunsavg 41.5¢ | $412.45 | $422.42 | +$9.97 | — |
 RN1 | Spursavg 58¢ | $145 | $143.75 | -$1.25 | — |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Spursavg 58¢ | $56.5 | $57.5 | +$1 | — |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Spursavg 58¢ | $14.62 | $14.88 | +$0.26 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Spursavg 58¢ | $14.5 | $14.37 | -$0.13 | — |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.13 | +$0.08 | — |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$412.45
Value
$422.42
PnL
+$9.97
Record
—
RN1Invested
$145
Value
$143.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
—
Invested
$56.5
Value
$57.5
PnL
+$1
Record
—
Invested
$14.62
Value
$14.88
PnL
+$0.26
Record
—
Invested
$14.5
Value
$14.37
PnL
-$0.13
Record
—
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.13
PnL
+$0.08
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.